2.30 Doncaster
I have been waiting for this horse to run again after 'flopping' on her last race when she finished 11/11 after being sent off the 7/4 fav. She took a keen hold and was slowly into stride as she was on her debut and when asked to quicken 2f out, she seemed to do so slowly. Hughes sent her back inside where there was no room and after being blocked twice, he let her cruise home under her own steam. This was the point in the race which, for me, highlighted the potential she had shown on debut when showing an electric turn of foot. At the pace they were travelling at the finish, Dreamwriter was back on the bridle at the back of the field but showed that she has a very high cruising speed and if getting a clearer run tomorrow, I would not be surprised to see this one win by a not inconsiderable margin.
2.45 Newbury
This looks like one of the tightest races of the day and cases could be made for many of these. Barbican is in very good form having won on his last 3 starts. He looks set to go close today but as already stated, many of these look in with a shout. Al Kazeem is the rightful favourite having only just been caught by Green Destiny last time out and he has been quite consistent this year. However the one I am siding with today is Beaten Up who is the least exposed after having only had 2 starts but he showed so much promise on the last occasion that I am willing to take a chance on him today. He is a half brother to Harris Tweed who has seemed to progress with age and I think Beaten Up may also do so. He is currently priced up at 11/2 and that does look short on all previous form, so I will wait to see if there are bigger prices in the morning and if not, this race is a no bet for me.
Friday 21 October 2011
Friday 14 October 2011
QIPCO Champions Day
QIPCO CHAMPION STAKES (BRITISH CHAMPIONS MIDDLE DISTANCE) (GROUP 1) 1m2f
This may look like one of the toughest races to call on paper but I have the feeling that So You Think will show everyone how good he really is. He's beaten Workforce and Snow Fairy this year over this distance which seems to be his optimum and he thrives with racing as shown by his campaign in Australia. This will also mean that it would be his summer and I don''t think we have seen the best of him yet. He didn't have a hard race in the Arc where he was given an unworkable draw but came home well to go down in 4th, half a length behind Snow Fairy. Snow Fairy was 1/2 length behind So You Think in the irish Champion Stakes and although closing at the line, I think SYT had more in the tank. Nathaniel won the King George VI stakes in good fashion at Ascot -the race in which the ill-fated Rewilding contested- beating the likes of Workforce and St. Nicholas Abbey. He was in receipt of 12lbs from the older horses that day whereas he receives only 5lbs tomorrow. I personally think he would prefer a longer trip to bring his stamina into play.
Snow Fairy has improved as the season has progressed but she does have a little to find with the favourite and has her old sparring partner in Midday to overcome. The latter named has run with great credit this year and although she handles the softr conditions, I think tomorrows trip and ground conditions will be perfect for her. She was beaten by her stablemate Twice Over last time out in the Juddmonte International where ground conditions may have gone slightly against her and she hung when taking the lead. I don't recall her having hung like that before so that is a slight concern for me. Cirrus Des Aigles has been running very well this year but would want softer ground. The Goldolphin pair Dubai Prince and Casamento are interesting. The former was transferred to the Goldophin yard by the owner after an unbeaten juvenile season. He met a setback at the start of the year and only returned to the track in a weak looking race last month. he is completely unexposed but he is too short based on known form. Casamento took the Racing Post trophy in his stride as a 2 year old but has had a relatively poor season. However a change of tactics looked to have worked for him last time out where he was held up off the back of the field and although very head strong he battled gamely to win. He looks a very tough ride and he tried to hang to his right the entire way down the straight last time out. Green Destiny was an obvious group horse in a handicap when hosing up at Newmarket at the start of the season and although he won two group 3s quite comfortably, this is a definite step up in class. Wigmore hall is a solid if unspectacular group horse. He beat Poets Voice in a group 2 in Meydan earlier this year and has followed that up with good runs in group one company culminating in a victory in a weak looking race at Woodbine last time out. Ransom note and Sri Putra would have to massively step up on anything they've shown so far.
Recommended bet: So You Think (NAP)
This may look like one of the toughest races to call on paper but I have the feeling that So You Think will show everyone how good he really is. He's beaten Workforce and Snow Fairy this year over this distance which seems to be his optimum and he thrives with racing as shown by his campaign in Australia. This will also mean that it would be his summer and I don''t think we have seen the best of him yet. He didn't have a hard race in the Arc where he was given an unworkable draw but came home well to go down in 4th, half a length behind Snow Fairy. Snow Fairy was 1/2 length behind So You Think in the irish Champion Stakes and although closing at the line, I think SYT had more in the tank. Nathaniel won the King George VI stakes in good fashion at Ascot -the race in which the ill-fated Rewilding contested- beating the likes of Workforce and St. Nicholas Abbey. He was in receipt of 12lbs from the older horses that day whereas he receives only 5lbs tomorrow. I personally think he would prefer a longer trip to bring his stamina into play.
Snow Fairy has improved as the season has progressed but she does have a little to find with the favourite and has her old sparring partner in Midday to overcome. The latter named has run with great credit this year and although she handles the softr conditions, I think tomorrows trip and ground conditions will be perfect for her. She was beaten by her stablemate Twice Over last time out in the Juddmonte International where ground conditions may have gone slightly against her and she hung when taking the lead. I don't recall her having hung like that before so that is a slight concern for me. Cirrus Des Aigles has been running very well this year but would want softer ground. The Goldolphin pair Dubai Prince and Casamento are interesting. The former was transferred to the Goldophin yard by the owner after an unbeaten juvenile season. He met a setback at the start of the year and only returned to the track in a weak looking race last month. he is completely unexposed but he is too short based on known form. Casamento took the Racing Post trophy in his stride as a 2 year old but has had a relatively poor season. However a change of tactics looked to have worked for him last time out where he was held up off the back of the field and although very head strong he battled gamely to win. He looks a very tough ride and he tried to hang to his right the entire way down the straight last time out. Green Destiny was an obvious group horse in a handicap when hosing up at Newmarket at the start of the season and although he won two group 3s quite comfortably, this is a definite step up in class. Wigmore hall is a solid if unspectacular group horse. He beat Poets Voice in a group 2 in Meydan earlier this year and has followed that up with good runs in group one company culminating in a victory in a weak looking race at Woodbine last time out. Ransom note and Sri Putra would have to massively step up on anything they've shown so far.
Recommended bet: So You Think (NAP)
QIPCO Champions Day
QUEEN ELIZABETH II STAKES SPONSORED BY QIPCO (BRITISH CHAMPIONS MILE) (GROUP 1) 1m
I think that Dick Turpin is a very good horse but was considered not in the same league to the stable's Canford Cliffs and we all saw what happened at Goodwood. I think that Side Glance is just below this grade and Bullet Train is being used as a pacemaker as he is Frankel's regular work partner. Poet's Voice is talented but has some questions to answer having put up some poor efforts since his close second in the Dubai World Cup. Dubawi Gold has been a bit hit and miss this season and he may not be in the same league as Frankel. In fact, none of these may be in that league. However, at 40/1 and with 3 places to play for he is the one for me to hit the frame.
Recommeded bet: Dubawi Gold to place at 4/1 on Betfair.
QIPCO Champions Day
QIPCO BRITISH CHAMPIONS FILLIES´ AND MARES´ STAKES (GROUP 2) 1m 4f
Ferdoos and Vita nova are closely matched on their Haydock form earlier in the season when the former won narrowly from the second with Crystal Capella and Meeznah further back. The latter has gone onto bigger things since when nearly unseating Tom Queally in the Lancashire Oaks when the race was at her mercy and narrowly being beaten by Blue Bunting with Crystal Capella and Banimpire further back in fourth and fifth respectively.
Dancing Rain this year's Epsom Oaks winner and Irish Oaks fifth subsequently won the German equivalent. She was regarded by many to have been slightly lucky to win the Oaks after being given a terrific ride by Murtagh from the front. I think the form of the Irish Oaks stands up slightly better as a rough guide and on a line through Blue Bunting and her win in the Yorkshire Oaks, I think Vita Nova may just be slightly better than Dancing Rain even at these weights. This would also give Ferdoos if she is able to progress from that win earlier in the season although the time off the track is a slight concern.
Of the others, Crystal Capella has to be feared given she has won this race for the last two years -albeit at HQ- although her best form this year was also at HQ when she was a hugely impressive winner in the Princess of Wales Stakes.
Recommended bet: Ferdoos to win, although market confidence would be a big bonus. Still unexposed having only had the four runs and can be a bit of a monkey once taking the lead. Vita Nova should go close but Ferdoos is the pick.
Ferdoos and Vita nova are closely matched on their Haydock form earlier in the season when the former won narrowly from the second with Crystal Capella and Meeznah further back. The latter has gone onto bigger things since when nearly unseating Tom Queally in the Lancashire Oaks when the race was at her mercy and narrowly being beaten by Blue Bunting with Crystal Capella and Banimpire further back in fourth and fifth respectively.
Dancing Rain this year's Epsom Oaks winner and Irish Oaks fifth subsequently won the German equivalent. She was regarded by many to have been slightly lucky to win the Oaks after being given a terrific ride by Murtagh from the front. I think the form of the Irish Oaks stands up slightly better as a rough guide and on a line through Blue Bunting and her win in the Yorkshire Oaks, I think Vita Nova may just be slightly better than Dancing Rain even at these weights. This would also give Ferdoos if she is able to progress from that win earlier in the season although the time off the track is a slight concern.
Of the others, Crystal Capella has to be feared given she has won this race for the last two years -albeit at HQ- although her best form this year was also at HQ when she was a hugely impressive winner in the Princess of Wales Stakes.
Recommended bet: Ferdoos to win, although market confidence would be a big bonus. Still unexposed having only had the four runs and can be a bit of a monkey once taking the lead. Vita Nova should go close but Ferdoos is the pick.
QIPCO Champions Day
QIPCO BRITISH CHAMPIONS SPRINT STAKES (GROUP 2) 6f
Deacon Blues is the current favourite for this race after landing a hat-trick of group 3 victories and the Wokingham at Royal Ascot. His trainer states that he would be more at home on ground that is on the softer side of good. The nature of his wins suggest he is well up to this level but this is his first attempt at this level and I would not want to take such a short price about him.
The same could be said of Moonlight Cloud who was most impressive when landing the Prix Maurice de Gheest over the extended 6f last time out when beating Society Rock and others quite cosily. She was in receipt of 8lbs from that on that occasion but only receives 4lbs here. However there was nothing in that run to suggest that Society Rock could turn the tables although it is the filly's first step back to 6f.
Society Rock landed the Golden Jubilee at Royal Ascot after finishing the bridesmaid at the first time of asking last year. He was my selection this year at 25/1 for the Golden Jubilee -a race in which he duly obliged- but I chose him on that day on the basis that all his market rivals had no form on the soft ground and with him being sired by Rock of Gibraltar he stood a decent chance in handling those conditions. He goes well enough on the ground but I personally believe that he stands a much better chance in soft ground where his opponents are unable to fully utilise their speed.
Recommended bet: Moonlight cloud to win.
QIPCO Champions Day
The biggest day in British horse racing history may have slightly been slightly overshadowed by the jockey protests in response to recent changes in the whip rule but we are here to focus on the racing. Not only is this the biggest day in terms of prize money due to the recently created British Champions Series sponsored by Sheikh Fahad who has done his utmost to reinvigorate the sport and bring it to the masses, but it will also be a bumper day in terms of the Scoop6.
QIPCO BRITISH CHAMPIONS LONG DISTANCE CUP (GROUP 3) 2m
The best horse in the race is Fame & Glory. Having won the Ascot Gold Cup over 2 1/2 miles back in June he has put up 2 disappointing runs since when failing to catch Fictional Account in the Irish Leger trial and when finishing well off the pace in the Irish Leger proper. However he is by far the class horse in the field and if Vincent O'Brien can get him firing after poor runs as he has others on many occasions before, he is the one to beat.
The likely favourite will be the Godolphin trained Opinion Poll ridden by crowd favourite Frankie Dettori. Opinion Poll has been at his best this year having won two group 2s and placed in another as well as finishing second in the Ascot Gold Cup. He was given far too much to do on that occasion having been held up from well off the pace and was a fast finishing but never nearer second. His last run was over 2m2f where he tired inside the final furlong to allow Saddler's Rock to pass comfortably. However he was giving away a lump of weight and this will be a slight drop in trip. I think that this may be one run too many as he has been on the go for much of this season and his style of running usually requires him to be cajoled late on which goes against the style suited by the new whip rules.
Another to consider is the John Dunlop trained Times Up who has been very consistent this year having won 3 from 6 and having been placed in another 2 of those occasions. He won a listed race last time out on his first attempt over the trip but the manner of that victory suggests he could go well here although it has to be noted he has never won a group race.
Colour Vision should also be noted as he receives weight from all but one of his market rivals and he finished 3rd in the Cambridgeshire the other week. This is a clear step up in class but being based in Mark Johnston's stable you can be sure he will have taken his races well and could be a player for the places.
Recommended bet: Fame & Glory if back to his peak will win and at current prices of 4.5 on Betfair he would be my bet with a small saver on Times Up.
QIPCO BRITISH CHAMPIONS LONG DISTANCE CUP (GROUP 3) 2m
The best horse in the race is Fame & Glory. Having won the Ascot Gold Cup over 2 1/2 miles back in June he has put up 2 disappointing runs since when failing to catch Fictional Account in the Irish Leger trial and when finishing well off the pace in the Irish Leger proper. However he is by far the class horse in the field and if Vincent O'Brien can get him firing after poor runs as he has others on many occasions before, he is the one to beat.
The likely favourite will be the Godolphin trained Opinion Poll ridden by crowd favourite Frankie Dettori. Opinion Poll has been at his best this year having won two group 2s and placed in another as well as finishing second in the Ascot Gold Cup. He was given far too much to do on that occasion having been held up from well off the pace and was a fast finishing but never nearer second. His last run was over 2m2f where he tired inside the final furlong to allow Saddler's Rock to pass comfortably. However he was giving away a lump of weight and this will be a slight drop in trip. I think that this may be one run too many as he has been on the go for much of this season and his style of running usually requires him to be cajoled late on which goes against the style suited by the new whip rules.
Another to consider is the John Dunlop trained Times Up who has been very consistent this year having won 3 from 6 and having been placed in another 2 of those occasions. He won a listed race last time out on his first attempt over the trip but the manner of that victory suggests he could go well here although it has to be noted he has never won a group race.
Colour Vision should also be noted as he receives weight from all but one of his market rivals and he finished 3rd in the Cambridgeshire the other week. This is a clear step up in class but being based in Mark Johnston's stable you can be sure he will have taken his races well and could be a player for the places.
Recommended bet: Fame & Glory if back to his peak will win and at current prices of 4.5 on Betfair he would be my bet with a small saver on Times Up.
Thursday 18 August 2011
York Ebor meeting day 4: Race 2
RACE 2
IRISH THOROUGHBRED MARKETING GIMCRACK STAKES (GROUP 2) (COLTS & GELDINGS) (CLASS 1) (2yo)
This looks to be a small but competitive field.
Lilbourne Lad (Hannon/Hughes) 10/3 sets the standard having won a group 2 at the Curragh. He finished 4th in a group 1 lto and he carries a 3lb penalty going into this event. He did not look to appreciate the softer ground lto and therefore the ground will need to be taken into consideration before betting.
Reply (O'Brien/O'Donoghue) 9/2 finished behind Lilbourne Lad lto but the 3lbs weight difference would put them very close together.
Burwaaz (Dunlop/Hills) 7/1 was perhaps drawn on the wrong side in the norfolk but he has had no excuses since when finishing runner up against Harbour Watch and Requinto. Probably about the right price although this would not be my bet for the race.
Justineo (Haggas/Spencer) 7/1 has improved for each run but still looks to be short of this level. Looks a bit short in the betting judged on what he has achieved so far.
Caspar Netscher (McCabe/Winston) 15/2 may be the value in this race. Has perhaps been a tad unlucky not to have won a race since his debut but has run well in defeat. On a formline with Harbour Watch, he should have the beating of Burwaaz and should be priced up accordingly.
Sardanapalus (Ryan/Makin) 8/1 Won well enough on debut having been green in the preliminaries but looks to have plenty to do to get close in this even with the form of the Ryan 2 y.o.s.
B Fifty Two (J. Hills/Sanders) 12/1 beat the favourite on his 3rd start but has not achieved in his 3 subsequent starts. Could well be a viable each-way selection if back to form.
Diamondhead (Meehan/Dwyer) 14/1 Looks to have a bit to find although Meehan juveniles usually come good with experience.
Wise Venture (Jarvis/Crowley) 25/1 Ran too bad to be true lto and having won on his first 2 starts, looked to be a colt going in the right direction. At 25/1 he could be a bit of value against the field.
Tips:
Caspar Netscher 1pt e/w
Wise Venture .25pt e/w
IRISH THOROUGHBRED MARKETING GIMCRACK STAKES (GROUP 2) (COLTS & GELDINGS) (CLASS 1) (2yo)
This looks to be a small but competitive field.
Lilbourne Lad (Hannon/Hughes) 10/3 sets the standard having won a group 2 at the Curragh. He finished 4th in a group 1 lto and he carries a 3lb penalty going into this event. He did not look to appreciate the softer ground lto and therefore the ground will need to be taken into consideration before betting.
Reply (O'Brien/O'Donoghue) 9/2 finished behind Lilbourne Lad lto but the 3lbs weight difference would put them very close together.
Burwaaz (Dunlop/Hills) 7/1 was perhaps drawn on the wrong side in the norfolk but he has had no excuses since when finishing runner up against Harbour Watch and Requinto. Probably about the right price although this would not be my bet for the race.
Justineo (Haggas/Spencer) 7/1 has improved for each run but still looks to be short of this level. Looks a bit short in the betting judged on what he has achieved so far.
Caspar Netscher (McCabe/Winston) 15/2 may be the value in this race. Has perhaps been a tad unlucky not to have won a race since his debut but has run well in defeat. On a formline with Harbour Watch, he should have the beating of Burwaaz and should be priced up accordingly.
Sardanapalus (Ryan/Makin) 8/1 Won well enough on debut having been green in the preliminaries but looks to have plenty to do to get close in this even with the form of the Ryan 2 y.o.s.
B Fifty Two (J. Hills/Sanders) 12/1 beat the favourite on his 3rd start but has not achieved in his 3 subsequent starts. Could well be a viable each-way selection if back to form.
Diamondhead (Meehan/Dwyer) 14/1 Looks to have a bit to find although Meehan juveniles usually come good with experience.
Wise Venture (Jarvis/Crowley) 25/1 Ran too bad to be true lto and having won on his first 2 starts, looked to be a colt going in the right direction. At 25/1 he could be a bit of value against the field.
Tips:
Caspar Netscher 1pt e/w
Wise Venture .25pt e/w
York Ebor meeting day 4: Race 1
Race 1
2.00 RACING UK ON SKY BET MOBILE STAKES (HANDICAP) (CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-100)
We open the card with a difficult looking handicap due to the variety of horses and the previous form of the runners. The current favourite at 8/1 is The Fonz trained by Sir Michael Stoute (SMS) and ridden by Kieren Fallon. This is the exact same combination who proved successful in last year's renewal of this race and SMS has won this race twice in the last 3 years. Since winning this race off a mark of 87 The Fonz has failed to add to that success in his 6 subsequent runs. The form of that race has not really lived up to its billing and although he has recently been dropped to a mark of 88 I don't think he will be good enough to win this year's renewal.
Agent Archie (Haggas/Hughes) is priced up at 17/2 after hosing up in a class 4 last time out off a mark of 80. He has been raised 8 lbs for that effortless victory so more can be expected. However this is a career high mark for him and he has never placed when running on the softer side of good.
Lady Chaparral (Moore/Sanders) 10/1 is another potential improver. The step back up to 12f looks set to suit having won comfortably in a ladies handicap lto although he did fail to stay the 14f 2 runs back on her only start at York. The handicapper has raised this one 8lbs for her last victory and in what was quite a weak race, she may not be so well weighted.
Kiama Bay (Quinn/Spencer) 11/1 has risen a whopping 26 lbs up the handicap this year following a run of 1112. This horse is clearly progressive and having come a close second on his last start, must surely go close again running of the same mark. He did not settle early on in his last run and was denied a run around 2f out but he ran gamely and was perhaps a tad unlucky not to get closer to the winner. Based on that run, he looks set to stay the 12f here and he has shown that he goes well on a variety of ground. With Jamie Spencer probably riding in the form of his life, Kiama Bay is certainly one to place on the shortlist.
Sharaayeen (Hills/B.Hills) 11/1 has been handed a tough time of late having raced recently off a mark of 98. He did not stay the 14f lto but he looks to be able to go on the ground and if he can reproduce a similar run to the shd 2nd behind Times Up earlier in the season, looks to have a decent chance.
Warlu Way (Dunlop/Makin) 12/1 has progressed nicely this year and was sent off as one of the market principles on his last run in a race won by Nehaam. Like Kiama Bay, he took a keen hold early on but was left with too much work to do late on and failed to pick up as expected. As a progeny of Sakhee, I'm not sure that he'd want too much give in the ground but I'd expect a decent run from him all the same.
Life and Soul (Perrett/Holland) 14/1 runs off his last winning mark (90) achieved when defeating Prompter and The Fonz last September at Ascot. He handles good to soft but would not want it any softer than that, has raced consistently although dropping slowly down the weights and would be one for the shortlist for me.
Mcbirney (D'Arcy/Queally) 16/1 is another improver this year having been raised 20lbs by the handicapper so far. He raced in a decent handicap lto off a mark of 82 and he went down 1/2 length after being hampered late on. He has gone up 2lbs from that run, and on the weights he looks to have a decent chance.
Bowdlers Magic (Johnston/de Sousa) 16/1 is a very tough horse with variable running styles and distances. He has not won in over a year when he was victorious off a mark of 84 at Sandown, but he races off a mark of 85 tomorrow which is also the lowest mark since that win last year. I personally do not feel as if this horse has the basic speed to win an event such as this even with the superb Brazilian on board.
Bay Willow (Bin Suroor/ Dettori) 18/1 would be in with a huge shout racing off a mark of 95 if the ground was on the better side of good. However all his wins have come on GF ground r on the AW surface in Dubai. Sired by Singspiel I doubt that the ground would be suitable to Bay Willow and as such is discounted.
Right Step (Jarvis/ Bentley) 20/1 has been the nearly horse having been runner up in 4 of his last 6 starts. He has yet to win since breaking his maiden tag in Aug 09 and looks not to stay the 12f outright. Therefore he is another that is discounted.
Prompter (Bell/ Turner) 20/1 is another who has failed to win since breaking his duck in Aug 09. having been heavily tried as a juvenile and as a 3 y.o when contesting at G3 level this mark of 97 is a career low but I still do not think that Prompter will be winning off this high a mark.
Waldvogel (Richards/ Eaves) 20/1 rarely sends one to york being primarily a NH trainer, however Waldvogel although being the oldest in the filed at 7, still retains some of his ability. He once contested the German Derby as a 3 y.o. and has recently been running to a decent standard on the flat having failed to shine over the hurdles. However, off a mark of 94, and having handled softer ground in the past, he could be one with an each-way shout.
Troopingthecolour (Gollings/Peslier) 20/1 may well be in over his head. Although he looks to be in the form of his life, he has been contesting and winning lowly contests and this step up in class could be a step too far.
Mirrored (Easterby/ Fentiman) 20/1 tackles this trip for the first time but doesn't look likely to stay and would prefer better ground.
Porgy (Simcock/ Buick) 25/1 is a C&D winner but this is a step up in class and he looks like another who would prefer better ground.
Classic Vintage (Perrett/Crowley) 28/1 is a distance winner and has won in variable conditions. He won a C3 handicap off the same mark two months ago although I think a place would be the best he could hope for.
Crackentorp (Easterby/Allan) 33/1 is a C&D winner although that came in a ladies handicap 2 months ago. Has flopped on his last 2 starts and although dropping another lb in the weights, he has never won off a mark this high and would also prefer better ground.
Royal Trooper (Given/Tylicki) 33/1 Twice stepped up to C2 company and has flopped on both times. Goes on variable conditions but this race looks too hot for him.
Dr Zhivago (McInnes/Nicholls) Huge step up in class, step up in trip, BIG BIG task.
Tip:
Kiama Bay 1pt E/W
Life and Soul 1pt E/W
2.00 RACING UK ON SKY BET MOBILE STAKES (HANDICAP) (CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-100)
We open the card with a difficult looking handicap due to the variety of horses and the previous form of the runners. The current favourite at 8/1 is The Fonz trained by Sir Michael Stoute (SMS) and ridden by Kieren Fallon. This is the exact same combination who proved successful in last year's renewal of this race and SMS has won this race twice in the last 3 years. Since winning this race off a mark of 87 The Fonz has failed to add to that success in his 6 subsequent runs. The form of that race has not really lived up to its billing and although he has recently been dropped to a mark of 88 I don't think he will be good enough to win this year's renewal.
Agent Archie (Haggas/Hughes) is priced up at 17/2 after hosing up in a class 4 last time out off a mark of 80. He has been raised 8 lbs for that effortless victory so more can be expected. However this is a career high mark for him and he has never placed when running on the softer side of good.
Lady Chaparral (Moore/Sanders) 10/1 is another potential improver. The step back up to 12f looks set to suit having won comfortably in a ladies handicap lto although he did fail to stay the 14f 2 runs back on her only start at York. The handicapper has raised this one 8lbs for her last victory and in what was quite a weak race, she may not be so well weighted.
Kiama Bay (Quinn/Spencer) 11/1 has risen a whopping 26 lbs up the handicap this year following a run of 1112. This horse is clearly progressive and having come a close second on his last start, must surely go close again running of the same mark. He did not settle early on in his last run and was denied a run around 2f out but he ran gamely and was perhaps a tad unlucky not to get closer to the winner. Based on that run, he looks set to stay the 12f here and he has shown that he goes well on a variety of ground. With Jamie Spencer probably riding in the form of his life, Kiama Bay is certainly one to place on the shortlist.
Sharaayeen (Hills/B.Hills) 11/1 has been handed a tough time of late having raced recently off a mark of 98. He did not stay the 14f lto but he looks to be able to go on the ground and if he can reproduce a similar run to the shd 2nd behind Times Up earlier in the season, looks to have a decent chance.
Warlu Way (Dunlop/Makin) 12/1 has progressed nicely this year and was sent off as one of the market principles on his last run in a race won by Nehaam. Like Kiama Bay, he took a keen hold early on but was left with too much work to do late on and failed to pick up as expected. As a progeny of Sakhee, I'm not sure that he'd want too much give in the ground but I'd expect a decent run from him all the same.
Life and Soul (Perrett/Holland) 14/1 runs off his last winning mark (90) achieved when defeating Prompter and The Fonz last September at Ascot. He handles good to soft but would not want it any softer than that, has raced consistently although dropping slowly down the weights and would be one for the shortlist for me.
Mcbirney (D'Arcy/Queally) 16/1 is another improver this year having been raised 20lbs by the handicapper so far. He raced in a decent handicap lto off a mark of 82 and he went down 1/2 length after being hampered late on. He has gone up 2lbs from that run, and on the weights he looks to have a decent chance.
Bowdlers Magic (Johnston/de Sousa) 16/1 is a very tough horse with variable running styles and distances. He has not won in over a year when he was victorious off a mark of 84 at Sandown, but he races off a mark of 85 tomorrow which is also the lowest mark since that win last year. I personally do not feel as if this horse has the basic speed to win an event such as this even with the superb Brazilian on board.
Bay Willow (Bin Suroor/ Dettori) 18/1 would be in with a huge shout racing off a mark of 95 if the ground was on the better side of good. However all his wins have come on GF ground r on the AW surface in Dubai. Sired by Singspiel I doubt that the ground would be suitable to Bay Willow and as such is discounted.
Right Step (Jarvis/ Bentley) 20/1 has been the nearly horse having been runner up in 4 of his last 6 starts. He has yet to win since breaking his maiden tag in Aug 09 and looks not to stay the 12f outright. Therefore he is another that is discounted.
Prompter (Bell/ Turner) 20/1 is another who has failed to win since breaking his duck in Aug 09. having been heavily tried as a juvenile and as a 3 y.o when contesting at G3 level this mark of 97 is a career low but I still do not think that Prompter will be winning off this high a mark.
Waldvogel (Richards/ Eaves) 20/1 rarely sends one to york being primarily a NH trainer, however Waldvogel although being the oldest in the filed at 7, still retains some of his ability. He once contested the German Derby as a 3 y.o. and has recently been running to a decent standard on the flat having failed to shine over the hurdles. However, off a mark of 94, and having handled softer ground in the past, he could be one with an each-way shout.
Troopingthecolour (Gollings/Peslier) 20/1 may well be in over his head. Although he looks to be in the form of his life, he has been contesting and winning lowly contests and this step up in class could be a step too far.
Mirrored (Easterby/ Fentiman) 20/1 tackles this trip for the first time but doesn't look likely to stay and would prefer better ground.
Porgy (Simcock/ Buick) 25/1 is a C&D winner but this is a step up in class and he looks like another who would prefer better ground.
Classic Vintage (Perrett/Crowley) 28/1 is a distance winner and has won in variable conditions. He won a C3 handicap off the same mark two months ago although I think a place would be the best he could hope for.
Crackentorp (Easterby/Allan) 33/1 is a C&D winner although that came in a ladies handicap 2 months ago. Has flopped on his last 2 starts and although dropping another lb in the weights, he has never won off a mark this high and would also prefer better ground.
Royal Trooper (Given/Tylicki) 33/1 Twice stepped up to C2 company and has flopped on both times. Goes on variable conditions but this race looks too hot for him.
Dr Zhivago (McInnes/Nicholls) Huge step up in class, step up in trip, BIG BIG task.
Tip:
Kiama Bay 1pt E/W
Life and Soul 1pt E/W
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