Friday 14 October 2011

QIPCO Champions Day

QUEEN ELIZABETH II STAKES SPONSORED BY QIPCO (BRITISH CHAMPIONS MILE) (GROUP 1) 1m

Shortest write up of the day. Frankel should(will) win. However at cramped odds, I would not be betting on him. This leaves the battle on for the places. Excelebration has shown himself in good light this year although he has been beaten by the favourite on two occasions and I really cannot see him overturning that here. Immortal Verse is a very good filly having won the Prix Jacques le Marois last time out and having won with an explosive turn of foot in the Coronation Stakes at Ascot. I am a bit wary of this filly as she has only raced on ground faster than GS once in her career when she was well down the field in the Poule D'Essai Des Pouliches on good ground back in May. Being by Pivotal she wouldn't want the ground too firm so good ground would be her limit. 
I think that Dick Turpin is a very good horse but was considered not in the same league to the stable's Canford Cliffs and we all saw what happened at Goodwood. I think that Side Glance is just below this grade and Bullet Train is being used as a pacemaker as he is Frankel's regular work partner. Poet's Voice is talented but has some questions to answer having put up some poor efforts since his close second in the Dubai World Cup. Dubawi Gold has been a bit hit and miss this season and he may not be  in the same league as Frankel. In fact, none of these may be in that league. However, at 40/1 and with 3 places to play for he is the one for me to hit the frame.

Recommeded bet:  Dubawi Gold to place at 4/1 on Betfair.

1 comment:

  1. I'm not one for backing shorties but Frankel at 1/2 at several places is now a value price. His chances of winning are clearly better than the 66.7% suggested by his odds. The odds of 1/3 indicating a 75% chance of succes may have been about right but at odds of 1/2 it now becomes value.

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