2.30 Doncaster
I have been waiting for this horse to run again after 'flopping' on her last race when she finished 11/11 after being sent off the 7/4 fav. She took a keen hold and was slowly into stride as she was on her debut and when asked to quicken 2f out, she seemed to do so slowly. Hughes sent her back inside where there was no room and after being blocked twice, he let her cruise home under her own steam. This was the point in the race which, for me, highlighted the potential she had shown on debut when showing an electric turn of foot. At the pace they were travelling at the finish, Dreamwriter was back on the bridle at the back of the field but showed that she has a very high cruising speed and if getting a clearer run tomorrow, I would not be surprised to see this one win by a not inconsiderable margin.
2.45 Newbury
This looks like one of the tightest races of the day and cases could be made for many of these. Barbican is in very good form having won on his last 3 starts. He looks set to go close today but as already stated, many of these look in with a shout. Al Kazeem is the rightful favourite having only just been caught by Green Destiny last time out and he has been quite consistent this year. However the one I am siding with today is Beaten Up who is the least exposed after having only had 2 starts but he showed so much promise on the last occasion that I am willing to take a chance on him today. He is a half brother to Harris Tweed who has seemed to progress with age and I think Beaten Up may also do so. He is currently priced up at 11/2 and that does look short on all previous form, so I will wait to see if there are bigger prices in the morning and if not, this race is a no bet for me.
Friday 21 October 2011
Friday 14 October 2011
QIPCO Champions Day
QIPCO CHAMPION STAKES (BRITISH CHAMPIONS MIDDLE DISTANCE) (GROUP 1) 1m2f
This may look like one of the toughest races to call on paper but I have the feeling that So You Think will show everyone how good he really is. He's beaten Workforce and Snow Fairy this year over this distance which seems to be his optimum and he thrives with racing as shown by his campaign in Australia. This will also mean that it would be his summer and I don''t think we have seen the best of him yet. He didn't have a hard race in the Arc where he was given an unworkable draw but came home well to go down in 4th, half a length behind Snow Fairy. Snow Fairy was 1/2 length behind So You Think in the irish Champion Stakes and although closing at the line, I think SYT had more in the tank. Nathaniel won the King George VI stakes in good fashion at Ascot -the race in which the ill-fated Rewilding contested- beating the likes of Workforce and St. Nicholas Abbey. He was in receipt of 12lbs from the older horses that day whereas he receives only 5lbs tomorrow. I personally think he would prefer a longer trip to bring his stamina into play.
Snow Fairy has improved as the season has progressed but she does have a little to find with the favourite and has her old sparring partner in Midday to overcome. The latter named has run with great credit this year and although she handles the softr conditions, I think tomorrows trip and ground conditions will be perfect for her. She was beaten by her stablemate Twice Over last time out in the Juddmonte International where ground conditions may have gone slightly against her and she hung when taking the lead. I don't recall her having hung like that before so that is a slight concern for me. Cirrus Des Aigles has been running very well this year but would want softer ground. The Goldolphin pair Dubai Prince and Casamento are interesting. The former was transferred to the Goldophin yard by the owner after an unbeaten juvenile season. He met a setback at the start of the year and only returned to the track in a weak looking race last month. he is completely unexposed but he is too short based on known form. Casamento took the Racing Post trophy in his stride as a 2 year old but has had a relatively poor season. However a change of tactics looked to have worked for him last time out where he was held up off the back of the field and although very head strong he battled gamely to win. He looks a very tough ride and he tried to hang to his right the entire way down the straight last time out. Green Destiny was an obvious group horse in a handicap when hosing up at Newmarket at the start of the season and although he won two group 3s quite comfortably, this is a definite step up in class. Wigmore hall is a solid if unspectacular group horse. He beat Poets Voice in a group 2 in Meydan earlier this year and has followed that up with good runs in group one company culminating in a victory in a weak looking race at Woodbine last time out. Ransom note and Sri Putra would have to massively step up on anything they've shown so far.
Recommended bet: So You Think (NAP)
This may look like one of the toughest races to call on paper but I have the feeling that So You Think will show everyone how good he really is. He's beaten Workforce and Snow Fairy this year over this distance which seems to be his optimum and he thrives with racing as shown by his campaign in Australia. This will also mean that it would be his summer and I don''t think we have seen the best of him yet. He didn't have a hard race in the Arc where he was given an unworkable draw but came home well to go down in 4th, half a length behind Snow Fairy. Snow Fairy was 1/2 length behind So You Think in the irish Champion Stakes and although closing at the line, I think SYT had more in the tank. Nathaniel won the King George VI stakes in good fashion at Ascot -the race in which the ill-fated Rewilding contested- beating the likes of Workforce and St. Nicholas Abbey. He was in receipt of 12lbs from the older horses that day whereas he receives only 5lbs tomorrow. I personally think he would prefer a longer trip to bring his stamina into play.
Snow Fairy has improved as the season has progressed but she does have a little to find with the favourite and has her old sparring partner in Midday to overcome. The latter named has run with great credit this year and although she handles the softr conditions, I think tomorrows trip and ground conditions will be perfect for her. She was beaten by her stablemate Twice Over last time out in the Juddmonte International where ground conditions may have gone slightly against her and she hung when taking the lead. I don't recall her having hung like that before so that is a slight concern for me. Cirrus Des Aigles has been running very well this year but would want softer ground. The Goldolphin pair Dubai Prince and Casamento are interesting. The former was transferred to the Goldophin yard by the owner after an unbeaten juvenile season. He met a setback at the start of the year and only returned to the track in a weak looking race last month. he is completely unexposed but he is too short based on known form. Casamento took the Racing Post trophy in his stride as a 2 year old but has had a relatively poor season. However a change of tactics looked to have worked for him last time out where he was held up off the back of the field and although very head strong he battled gamely to win. He looks a very tough ride and he tried to hang to his right the entire way down the straight last time out. Green Destiny was an obvious group horse in a handicap when hosing up at Newmarket at the start of the season and although he won two group 3s quite comfortably, this is a definite step up in class. Wigmore hall is a solid if unspectacular group horse. He beat Poets Voice in a group 2 in Meydan earlier this year and has followed that up with good runs in group one company culminating in a victory in a weak looking race at Woodbine last time out. Ransom note and Sri Putra would have to massively step up on anything they've shown so far.
Recommended bet: So You Think (NAP)
QIPCO Champions Day
QUEEN ELIZABETH II STAKES SPONSORED BY QIPCO (BRITISH CHAMPIONS MILE) (GROUP 1) 1m
I think that Dick Turpin is a very good horse but was considered not in the same league to the stable's Canford Cliffs and we all saw what happened at Goodwood. I think that Side Glance is just below this grade and Bullet Train is being used as a pacemaker as he is Frankel's regular work partner. Poet's Voice is talented but has some questions to answer having put up some poor efforts since his close second in the Dubai World Cup. Dubawi Gold has been a bit hit and miss this season and he may not be in the same league as Frankel. In fact, none of these may be in that league. However, at 40/1 and with 3 places to play for he is the one for me to hit the frame.
Recommeded bet: Dubawi Gold to place at 4/1 on Betfair.
QIPCO Champions Day
QIPCO BRITISH CHAMPIONS FILLIES´ AND MARES´ STAKES (GROUP 2) 1m 4f
Ferdoos and Vita nova are closely matched on their Haydock form earlier in the season when the former won narrowly from the second with Crystal Capella and Meeznah further back. The latter has gone onto bigger things since when nearly unseating Tom Queally in the Lancashire Oaks when the race was at her mercy and narrowly being beaten by Blue Bunting with Crystal Capella and Banimpire further back in fourth and fifth respectively.
Dancing Rain this year's Epsom Oaks winner and Irish Oaks fifth subsequently won the German equivalent. She was regarded by many to have been slightly lucky to win the Oaks after being given a terrific ride by Murtagh from the front. I think the form of the Irish Oaks stands up slightly better as a rough guide and on a line through Blue Bunting and her win in the Yorkshire Oaks, I think Vita Nova may just be slightly better than Dancing Rain even at these weights. This would also give Ferdoos if she is able to progress from that win earlier in the season although the time off the track is a slight concern.
Of the others, Crystal Capella has to be feared given she has won this race for the last two years -albeit at HQ- although her best form this year was also at HQ when she was a hugely impressive winner in the Princess of Wales Stakes.
Recommended bet: Ferdoos to win, although market confidence would be a big bonus. Still unexposed having only had the four runs and can be a bit of a monkey once taking the lead. Vita Nova should go close but Ferdoos is the pick.
Ferdoos and Vita nova are closely matched on their Haydock form earlier in the season when the former won narrowly from the second with Crystal Capella and Meeznah further back. The latter has gone onto bigger things since when nearly unseating Tom Queally in the Lancashire Oaks when the race was at her mercy and narrowly being beaten by Blue Bunting with Crystal Capella and Banimpire further back in fourth and fifth respectively.
Dancing Rain this year's Epsom Oaks winner and Irish Oaks fifth subsequently won the German equivalent. She was regarded by many to have been slightly lucky to win the Oaks after being given a terrific ride by Murtagh from the front. I think the form of the Irish Oaks stands up slightly better as a rough guide and on a line through Blue Bunting and her win in the Yorkshire Oaks, I think Vita Nova may just be slightly better than Dancing Rain even at these weights. This would also give Ferdoos if she is able to progress from that win earlier in the season although the time off the track is a slight concern.
Of the others, Crystal Capella has to be feared given she has won this race for the last two years -albeit at HQ- although her best form this year was also at HQ when she was a hugely impressive winner in the Princess of Wales Stakes.
Recommended bet: Ferdoos to win, although market confidence would be a big bonus. Still unexposed having only had the four runs and can be a bit of a monkey once taking the lead. Vita Nova should go close but Ferdoos is the pick.
QIPCO Champions Day
QIPCO BRITISH CHAMPIONS SPRINT STAKES (GROUP 2) 6f
Deacon Blues is the current favourite for this race after landing a hat-trick of group 3 victories and the Wokingham at Royal Ascot. His trainer states that he would be more at home on ground that is on the softer side of good. The nature of his wins suggest he is well up to this level but this is his first attempt at this level and I would not want to take such a short price about him.
The same could be said of Moonlight Cloud who was most impressive when landing the Prix Maurice de Gheest over the extended 6f last time out when beating Society Rock and others quite cosily. She was in receipt of 8lbs from that on that occasion but only receives 4lbs here. However there was nothing in that run to suggest that Society Rock could turn the tables although it is the filly's first step back to 6f.
Society Rock landed the Golden Jubilee at Royal Ascot after finishing the bridesmaid at the first time of asking last year. He was my selection this year at 25/1 for the Golden Jubilee -a race in which he duly obliged- but I chose him on that day on the basis that all his market rivals had no form on the soft ground and with him being sired by Rock of Gibraltar he stood a decent chance in handling those conditions. He goes well enough on the ground but I personally believe that he stands a much better chance in soft ground where his opponents are unable to fully utilise their speed.
Recommended bet: Moonlight cloud to win.
QIPCO Champions Day
The biggest day in British horse racing history may have slightly been slightly overshadowed by the jockey protests in response to recent changes in the whip rule but we are here to focus on the racing. Not only is this the biggest day in terms of prize money due to the recently created British Champions Series sponsored by Sheikh Fahad who has done his utmost to reinvigorate the sport and bring it to the masses, but it will also be a bumper day in terms of the Scoop6.
QIPCO BRITISH CHAMPIONS LONG DISTANCE CUP (GROUP 3) 2m
The best horse in the race is Fame & Glory. Having won the Ascot Gold Cup over 2 1/2 miles back in June he has put up 2 disappointing runs since when failing to catch Fictional Account in the Irish Leger trial and when finishing well off the pace in the Irish Leger proper. However he is by far the class horse in the field and if Vincent O'Brien can get him firing after poor runs as he has others on many occasions before, he is the one to beat.
The likely favourite will be the Godolphin trained Opinion Poll ridden by crowd favourite Frankie Dettori. Opinion Poll has been at his best this year having won two group 2s and placed in another as well as finishing second in the Ascot Gold Cup. He was given far too much to do on that occasion having been held up from well off the pace and was a fast finishing but never nearer second. His last run was over 2m2f where he tired inside the final furlong to allow Saddler's Rock to pass comfortably. However he was giving away a lump of weight and this will be a slight drop in trip. I think that this may be one run too many as he has been on the go for much of this season and his style of running usually requires him to be cajoled late on which goes against the style suited by the new whip rules.
Another to consider is the John Dunlop trained Times Up who has been very consistent this year having won 3 from 6 and having been placed in another 2 of those occasions. He won a listed race last time out on his first attempt over the trip but the manner of that victory suggests he could go well here although it has to be noted he has never won a group race.
Colour Vision should also be noted as he receives weight from all but one of his market rivals and he finished 3rd in the Cambridgeshire the other week. This is a clear step up in class but being based in Mark Johnston's stable you can be sure he will have taken his races well and could be a player for the places.
Recommended bet: Fame & Glory if back to his peak will win and at current prices of 4.5 on Betfair he would be my bet with a small saver on Times Up.
QIPCO BRITISH CHAMPIONS LONG DISTANCE CUP (GROUP 3) 2m
The best horse in the race is Fame & Glory. Having won the Ascot Gold Cup over 2 1/2 miles back in June he has put up 2 disappointing runs since when failing to catch Fictional Account in the Irish Leger trial and when finishing well off the pace in the Irish Leger proper. However he is by far the class horse in the field and if Vincent O'Brien can get him firing after poor runs as he has others on many occasions before, he is the one to beat.
The likely favourite will be the Godolphin trained Opinion Poll ridden by crowd favourite Frankie Dettori. Opinion Poll has been at his best this year having won two group 2s and placed in another as well as finishing second in the Ascot Gold Cup. He was given far too much to do on that occasion having been held up from well off the pace and was a fast finishing but never nearer second. His last run was over 2m2f where he tired inside the final furlong to allow Saddler's Rock to pass comfortably. However he was giving away a lump of weight and this will be a slight drop in trip. I think that this may be one run too many as he has been on the go for much of this season and his style of running usually requires him to be cajoled late on which goes against the style suited by the new whip rules.
Another to consider is the John Dunlop trained Times Up who has been very consistent this year having won 3 from 6 and having been placed in another 2 of those occasions. He won a listed race last time out on his first attempt over the trip but the manner of that victory suggests he could go well here although it has to be noted he has never won a group race.
Colour Vision should also be noted as he receives weight from all but one of his market rivals and he finished 3rd in the Cambridgeshire the other week. This is a clear step up in class but being based in Mark Johnston's stable you can be sure he will have taken his races well and could be a player for the places.
Recommended bet: Fame & Glory if back to his peak will win and at current prices of 4.5 on Betfair he would be my bet with a small saver on Times Up.
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