York Ebor meeting day 4: Race 2

RACE 2
IRISH THOROUGHBRED MARKETING GIMCRACK STAKES (GROUP 2) (COLTS & GELDINGS) (CLASS 1) (2yo)


This looks to be a small but competitive field. 
Lilbourne Lad (Hannon/Hughes) 10/3 sets the standard having won a group 2 at the Curragh. He finished 4th in a group 1 lto and he carries a 3lb penalty going into this event. He did not look to appreciate the softer ground lto and therefore the ground will need to be taken into consideration before betting.
Reply (O'Brien/O'Donoghue) 9/2 finished behind Lilbourne Lad lto but the 3lbs weight difference would put them very close together.
Burwaaz (Dunlop/Hills) 7/1 was perhaps drawn on the wrong side in the norfolk but he has had no excuses since when finishing runner up against Harbour Watch and Requinto. Probably about the right price although this would not be my bet for the race.
Justineo (Haggas/Spencer) 7/1 has improved for each run but still looks to be short of this level. Looks a bit short in the betting judged on what he has achieved so far.
Caspar Netscher (McCabe/Winston) 15/2 may be the value in this race. Has perhaps been a tad unlucky not to have won a race since his debut but has run well in defeat. On a formline with Harbour Watch, he should have the beating of Burwaaz and should be priced up accordingly. 
Sardanapalus (Ryan/Makin) 8/1 Won well enough on debut having been green in the preliminaries but looks to have plenty to do to get close in this even with the form of the Ryan 2 y.o.s. 
B Fifty Two (J. Hills/Sanders) 12/1 beat the favourite on his 3rd start but has not achieved in his 3 subsequent starts. Could well be a viable each-way selection if back to form.
Diamondhead (Meehan/Dwyer) 14/1 Looks to have a bit to find although Meehan juveniles usually come good with experience. 
Wise Venture (Jarvis/Crowley) 25/1 Ran too bad to be true lto and having won on his first 2 starts, looked to be a colt going in the right direction. At 25/1 he could be a bit of value against the field. 


Tips:
Caspar Netscher 1pt e/w
Wise Venture .25pt e/w