RACE 2
IRISH THOROUGHBRED MARKETING GIMCRACK STAKES (GROUP 2) (COLTS & GELDINGS) (CLASS 1) (2yo)
This looks to be a small but competitive field.
Lilbourne Lad (Hannon/Hughes) 10/3 sets the standard having won a group 2 at the Curragh. He finished 4th in a group 1 lto and he carries a 3lb penalty going into this event. He did not look to appreciate the softer ground lto and therefore the ground will need to be taken into consideration before betting.
Reply (O'Brien/O'Donoghue) 9/2 finished behind Lilbourne Lad lto but the 3lbs weight difference would put them very close together.
Burwaaz (Dunlop/Hills) 7/1 was perhaps drawn on the wrong side in the norfolk but he has had no excuses since when finishing runner up against Harbour Watch and Requinto. Probably about the right price although this would not be my bet for the race.
Justineo (Haggas/Spencer) 7/1 has improved for each run but still looks to be short of this level. Looks a bit short in the betting judged on what he has achieved so far.
Caspar Netscher (McCabe/Winston) 15/2 may be the value in this race. Has perhaps been a tad unlucky not to have won a race since his debut but has run well in defeat. On a formline with Harbour Watch, he should have the beating of Burwaaz and should be priced up accordingly.
Sardanapalus (Ryan/Makin) 8/1 Won well enough on debut having been green in the preliminaries but looks to have plenty to do to get close in this even with the form of the Ryan 2 y.o.s.
B Fifty Two (J. Hills/Sanders) 12/1 beat the favourite on his 3rd start but has not achieved in his 3 subsequent starts. Could well be a viable each-way selection if back to form.
Diamondhead (Meehan/Dwyer) 14/1 Looks to have a bit to find although Meehan juveniles usually come good with experience.
Wise Venture (Jarvis/Crowley) 25/1 Ran too bad to be true lto and having won on his first 2 starts, looked to be a colt going in the right direction. At 25/1 he could be a bit of value against the field.
Tips:
Caspar Netscher 1pt e/w
Wise Venture .25pt e/w
Thursday 18 August 2011
York Ebor meeting day 4: Race 1
Race 1
2.00 RACING UK ON SKY BET MOBILE STAKES (HANDICAP) (CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-100)
We open the card with a difficult looking handicap due to the variety of horses and the previous form of the runners. The current favourite at 8/1 is The Fonz trained by Sir Michael Stoute (SMS) and ridden by Kieren Fallon. This is the exact same combination who proved successful in last year's renewal of this race and SMS has won this race twice in the last 3 years. Since winning this race off a mark of 87 The Fonz has failed to add to that success in his 6 subsequent runs. The form of that race has not really lived up to its billing and although he has recently been dropped to a mark of 88 I don't think he will be good enough to win this year's renewal.
Agent Archie (Haggas/Hughes) is priced up at 17/2 after hosing up in a class 4 last time out off a mark of 80. He has been raised 8 lbs for that effortless victory so more can be expected. However this is a career high mark for him and he has never placed when running on the softer side of good.
Lady Chaparral (Moore/Sanders) 10/1 is another potential improver. The step back up to 12f looks set to suit having won comfortably in a ladies handicap lto although he did fail to stay the 14f 2 runs back on her only start at York. The handicapper has raised this one 8lbs for her last victory and in what was quite a weak race, she may not be so well weighted.
Kiama Bay (Quinn/Spencer) 11/1 has risen a whopping 26 lbs up the handicap this year following a run of 1112. This horse is clearly progressive and having come a close second on his last start, must surely go close again running of the same mark. He did not settle early on in his last run and was denied a run around 2f out but he ran gamely and was perhaps a tad unlucky not to get closer to the winner. Based on that run, he looks set to stay the 12f here and he has shown that he goes well on a variety of ground. With Jamie Spencer probably riding in the form of his life, Kiama Bay is certainly one to place on the shortlist.
Sharaayeen (Hills/B.Hills) 11/1 has been handed a tough time of late having raced recently off a mark of 98. He did not stay the 14f lto but he looks to be able to go on the ground and if he can reproduce a similar run to the shd 2nd behind Times Up earlier in the season, looks to have a decent chance.
Warlu Way (Dunlop/Makin) 12/1 has progressed nicely this year and was sent off as one of the market principles on his last run in a race won by Nehaam. Like Kiama Bay, he took a keen hold early on but was left with too much work to do late on and failed to pick up as expected. As a progeny of Sakhee, I'm not sure that he'd want too much give in the ground but I'd expect a decent run from him all the same.
Life and Soul (Perrett/Holland) 14/1 runs off his last winning mark (90) achieved when defeating Prompter and The Fonz last September at Ascot. He handles good to soft but would not want it any softer than that, has raced consistently although dropping slowly down the weights and would be one for the shortlist for me.
Mcbirney (D'Arcy/Queally) 16/1 is another improver this year having been raised 20lbs by the handicapper so far. He raced in a decent handicap lto off a mark of 82 and he went down 1/2 length after being hampered late on. He has gone up 2lbs from that run, and on the weights he looks to have a decent chance.
Bowdlers Magic (Johnston/de Sousa) 16/1 is a very tough horse with variable running styles and distances. He has not won in over a year when he was victorious off a mark of 84 at Sandown, but he races off a mark of 85 tomorrow which is also the lowest mark since that win last year. I personally do not feel as if this horse has the basic speed to win an event such as this even with the superb Brazilian on board.
Bay Willow (Bin Suroor/ Dettori) 18/1 would be in with a huge shout racing off a mark of 95 if the ground was on the better side of good. However all his wins have come on GF ground r on the AW surface in Dubai. Sired by Singspiel I doubt that the ground would be suitable to Bay Willow and as such is discounted.
Right Step (Jarvis/ Bentley) 20/1 has been the nearly horse having been runner up in 4 of his last 6 starts. He has yet to win since breaking his maiden tag in Aug 09 and looks not to stay the 12f outright. Therefore he is another that is discounted.
Prompter (Bell/ Turner) 20/1 is another who has failed to win since breaking his duck in Aug 09. having been heavily tried as a juvenile and as a 3 y.o when contesting at G3 level this mark of 97 is a career low but I still do not think that Prompter will be winning off this high a mark.
Waldvogel (Richards/ Eaves) 20/1 rarely sends one to york being primarily a NH trainer, however Waldvogel although being the oldest in the filed at 7, still retains some of his ability. He once contested the German Derby as a 3 y.o. and has recently been running to a decent standard on the flat having failed to shine over the hurdles. However, off a mark of 94, and having handled softer ground in the past, he could be one with an each-way shout.
Troopingthecolour (Gollings/Peslier) 20/1 may well be in over his head. Although he looks to be in the form of his life, he has been contesting and winning lowly contests and this step up in class could be a step too far.
Mirrored (Easterby/ Fentiman) 20/1 tackles this trip for the first time but doesn't look likely to stay and would prefer better ground.
Porgy (Simcock/ Buick) 25/1 is a C&D winner but this is a step up in class and he looks like another who would prefer better ground.
Classic Vintage (Perrett/Crowley) 28/1 is a distance winner and has won in variable conditions. He won a C3 handicap off the same mark two months ago although I think a place would be the best he could hope for.
Crackentorp (Easterby/Allan) 33/1 is a C&D winner although that came in a ladies handicap 2 months ago. Has flopped on his last 2 starts and although dropping another lb in the weights, he has never won off a mark this high and would also prefer better ground.
Royal Trooper (Given/Tylicki) 33/1 Twice stepped up to C2 company and has flopped on both times. Goes on variable conditions but this race looks too hot for him.
Dr Zhivago (McInnes/Nicholls) Huge step up in class, step up in trip, BIG BIG task.
Tip:
Kiama Bay 1pt E/W
Life and Soul 1pt E/W
2.00 RACING UK ON SKY BET MOBILE STAKES (HANDICAP) (CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-100)
We open the card with a difficult looking handicap due to the variety of horses and the previous form of the runners. The current favourite at 8/1 is The Fonz trained by Sir Michael Stoute (SMS) and ridden by Kieren Fallon. This is the exact same combination who proved successful in last year's renewal of this race and SMS has won this race twice in the last 3 years. Since winning this race off a mark of 87 The Fonz has failed to add to that success in his 6 subsequent runs. The form of that race has not really lived up to its billing and although he has recently been dropped to a mark of 88 I don't think he will be good enough to win this year's renewal.
Agent Archie (Haggas/Hughes) is priced up at 17/2 after hosing up in a class 4 last time out off a mark of 80. He has been raised 8 lbs for that effortless victory so more can be expected. However this is a career high mark for him and he has never placed when running on the softer side of good.
Lady Chaparral (Moore/Sanders) 10/1 is another potential improver. The step back up to 12f looks set to suit having won comfortably in a ladies handicap lto although he did fail to stay the 14f 2 runs back on her only start at York. The handicapper has raised this one 8lbs for her last victory and in what was quite a weak race, she may not be so well weighted.
Kiama Bay (Quinn/Spencer) 11/1 has risen a whopping 26 lbs up the handicap this year following a run of 1112. This horse is clearly progressive and having come a close second on his last start, must surely go close again running of the same mark. He did not settle early on in his last run and was denied a run around 2f out but he ran gamely and was perhaps a tad unlucky not to get closer to the winner. Based on that run, he looks set to stay the 12f here and he has shown that he goes well on a variety of ground. With Jamie Spencer probably riding in the form of his life, Kiama Bay is certainly one to place on the shortlist.
Sharaayeen (Hills/B.Hills) 11/1 has been handed a tough time of late having raced recently off a mark of 98. He did not stay the 14f lto but he looks to be able to go on the ground and if he can reproduce a similar run to the shd 2nd behind Times Up earlier in the season, looks to have a decent chance.
Warlu Way (Dunlop/Makin) 12/1 has progressed nicely this year and was sent off as one of the market principles on his last run in a race won by Nehaam. Like Kiama Bay, he took a keen hold early on but was left with too much work to do late on and failed to pick up as expected. As a progeny of Sakhee, I'm not sure that he'd want too much give in the ground but I'd expect a decent run from him all the same.
Life and Soul (Perrett/Holland) 14/1 runs off his last winning mark (90) achieved when defeating Prompter and The Fonz last September at Ascot. He handles good to soft but would not want it any softer than that, has raced consistently although dropping slowly down the weights and would be one for the shortlist for me.
Mcbirney (D'Arcy/Queally) 16/1 is another improver this year having been raised 20lbs by the handicapper so far. He raced in a decent handicap lto off a mark of 82 and he went down 1/2 length after being hampered late on. He has gone up 2lbs from that run, and on the weights he looks to have a decent chance.
Bowdlers Magic (Johnston/de Sousa) 16/1 is a very tough horse with variable running styles and distances. He has not won in over a year when he was victorious off a mark of 84 at Sandown, but he races off a mark of 85 tomorrow which is also the lowest mark since that win last year. I personally do not feel as if this horse has the basic speed to win an event such as this even with the superb Brazilian on board.
Bay Willow (Bin Suroor/ Dettori) 18/1 would be in with a huge shout racing off a mark of 95 if the ground was on the better side of good. However all his wins have come on GF ground r on the AW surface in Dubai. Sired by Singspiel I doubt that the ground would be suitable to Bay Willow and as such is discounted.
Right Step (Jarvis/ Bentley) 20/1 has been the nearly horse having been runner up in 4 of his last 6 starts. He has yet to win since breaking his maiden tag in Aug 09 and looks not to stay the 12f outright. Therefore he is another that is discounted.
Prompter (Bell/ Turner) 20/1 is another who has failed to win since breaking his duck in Aug 09. having been heavily tried as a juvenile and as a 3 y.o when contesting at G3 level this mark of 97 is a career low but I still do not think that Prompter will be winning off this high a mark.
Waldvogel (Richards/ Eaves) 20/1 rarely sends one to york being primarily a NH trainer, however Waldvogel although being the oldest in the filed at 7, still retains some of his ability. He once contested the German Derby as a 3 y.o. and has recently been running to a decent standard on the flat having failed to shine over the hurdles. However, off a mark of 94, and having handled softer ground in the past, he could be one with an each-way shout.
Troopingthecolour (Gollings/Peslier) 20/1 may well be in over his head. Although he looks to be in the form of his life, he has been contesting and winning lowly contests and this step up in class could be a step too far.
Mirrored (Easterby/ Fentiman) 20/1 tackles this trip for the first time but doesn't look likely to stay and would prefer better ground.
Porgy (Simcock/ Buick) 25/1 is a C&D winner but this is a step up in class and he looks like another who would prefer better ground.
Classic Vintage (Perrett/Crowley) 28/1 is a distance winner and has won in variable conditions. He won a C3 handicap off the same mark two months ago although I think a place would be the best he could hope for.
Crackentorp (Easterby/Allan) 33/1 is a C&D winner although that came in a ladies handicap 2 months ago. Has flopped on his last 2 starts and although dropping another lb in the weights, he has never won off a mark this high and would also prefer better ground.
Royal Trooper (Given/Tylicki) 33/1 Twice stepped up to C2 company and has flopped on both times. Goes on variable conditions but this race looks too hot for him.
Dr Zhivago (McInnes/Nicholls) Huge step up in class, step up in trip, BIG BIG task.
Tip:
Kiama Bay 1pt E/W
Life and Soul 1pt E/W
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